There is a prevalent belief that the economy determines the President. If the economy is good, the President keeps his job, if it is bad, he is out. A large body of econometric literature has been published on this topic. This paper takes a new approach. I look not at how the popular vote changes with economic conditions, but how the electoral vote changes. I further examine how these changes affect the probability that the incumbent party stays in office. I find that economic conditions may not be as important as they have been purported to be.
Roth, Roy K.
"Does the Economy Determine the President? A Regression Model For Predicting US Presidential Elections,"
Undergraduate Economic Review:
1, Article 11.
Available at: http://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/uer/vol8/iss1/11