Time Series Analysis of Sales Tax Receipts in Cook County, Illinois Since 2004
Submission Type
Event
Expected Graduation Date
2013
Location
Room E102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University
Start Date
4-20-2013 10:00 AM
End Date
4-20-2013 11:00 AM
Disciplines
Economics
Abstract
This paper studies sales tax receipts collected by the Illinois Department of Revenue for Cook County. The data sample is gathered monthly from July 2004 through December 2012, with a total of 102 observations. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct a short-term forecast of the series. We have identified two trends in the data: a slightly positive one until October 2008 and a negative trend from then on. We also observe a complete cycle in the series, possibly capturing the 2008-2009 recession. Finally, there is a seasonal pattern in the data with the highest sales tax receipts registered in March. We compute ADF and KPSS tests to determine the order of integration of the series and conclude that the series is integrated of order one, i.e. I(1).
Time Series Analysis of Sales Tax Receipts in Cook County, Illinois Since 2004
Room E102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University
This paper studies sales tax receipts collected by the Illinois Department of Revenue for Cook County. The data sample is gathered monthly from July 2004 through December 2012, with a total of 102 observations. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct a short-term forecast of the series. We have identified two trends in the data: a slightly positive one until October 2008 and a negative trend from then on. We also observe a complete cycle in the series, possibly capturing the 2008-2009 recession. Finally, there is a seasonal pattern in the data with the highest sales tax receipts registered in March. We compute ADF and KPSS tests to determine the order of integration of the series and conclude that the series is integrated of order one, i.e. I(1).