Event Title

Time Series Analysis of Sales Tax Receipts in Cook County, Illinois Since 2004

Graduation Year

2013

Location

Room E102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University

Start Date

20-4-2013 10:00 AM

End Date

20-4-2013 11:00 AM

Description

This paper studies sales tax receipts collected by the Illinois Department of Revenue for Cook County. The data sample is gathered monthly from July 2004 through December 2012, with a total of 102 observations. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct a short-term forecast of the series. We have identified two trends in the data: a slightly positive one until October 2008 and a negative trend from then on. We also observe a complete cycle in the series, possibly capturing the 2008-2009 recession. Finally, there is a seasonal pattern in the data with the highest sales tax receipts registered in March. We compute ADF and KPSS tests to determine the order of integration of the series and conclude that the series is integrated of order one, i.e. I(1).

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Apr 20th, 10:00 AM Apr 20th, 11:00 AM

Time Series Analysis of Sales Tax Receipts in Cook County, Illinois Since 2004

Room E102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University

This paper studies sales tax receipts collected by the Illinois Department of Revenue for Cook County. The data sample is gathered monthly from July 2004 through December 2012, with a total of 102 observations. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct a short-term forecast of the series. We have identified two trends in the data: a slightly positive one until October 2008 and a negative trend from then on. We also observe a complete cycle in the series, possibly capturing the 2008-2009 recession. Finally, there is a seasonal pattern in the data with the highest sales tax receipts registered in March. We compute ADF and KPSS tests to determine the order of integration of the series and conclude that the series is integrated of order one, i.e. I(1).