The Office of the United States Trade Representative, under the direction of President Donald Trump, has implemented protectionist tariffs to an extent not seen in the past several decades. This paper explores data from the U.S. Census Bureau to analyze how the values of U.S. imports and exports have differed from what would have been expected for 2018 in the absence of tariffs. This is done by using past years’ data to create a predictive curve for 2018 trade values across several different product categories, which have been subject to tariffs. The general finding of this paper is that the U.S. trade deficit was smaller than predicted and that imports from China were lower than would have been expected without the tariffs. This finding is generally supported when looking at product categories. However, shrinking the trade deficit does not correlate with an improved domestic economy or improved welfare for U.S. consumers.
"The Impact of 2018 Tariffs on U.S. Trade Values Across Relevant Categories,"
Undergraduate Economic Review: Vol. 15
, Article 16.
Available at: https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/uer/vol15/iss1/16