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Abstract

There is a prevalent belief that the economy determines the President. If the economy is good, the President keeps his job, if it is bad, he is out. A large body of econometric literature has been published on this topic. This paper takes a new approach. I look not at how the popular vote changes with economic conditions, but how the electoral vote changes. I further examine how these changes affect the probability that the incumbent party stays in office. I find that economic conditions may not be as important as they have been purported to be.

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