Event Title

A Time-Series Analysis of the Sales Tax in Tazewell County, Illinois

Graduation Year

2014

Location

Room E102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University

Start Date

20-4-2013 10:00 AM

End Date

20-4-2013 11:00 AM

Description

This paper studies the sales tax receipts collected for Tazewell County, Illinois. The data series contains 102 observations between July 2004 and December 2012. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct short-term forecasting of the series. Within an overall positive trend for the whole sample period a cyclical contraction followed by an expansion, corresponding to the 2008-2009 recession, are identified. Recurring seasonal patterns are also apparent, pointing to the month of March as the month with highest sales tax receipts being collected in March. A complete economic cycle of the data series can be observed over the time period including the recession of 2008-2009. The series was determined to be integrated of order one by conducting ADF and KPSS tests.

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Apr 20th, 10:00 AM Apr 20th, 11:00 AM

A Time-Series Analysis of the Sales Tax in Tazewell County, Illinois

Room E102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University

This paper studies the sales tax receipts collected for Tazewell County, Illinois. The data series contains 102 observations between July 2004 and December 2012. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct short-term forecasting of the series. Within an overall positive trend for the whole sample period a cyclical contraction followed by an expansion, corresponding to the 2008-2009 recession, are identified. Recurring seasonal patterns are also apparent, pointing to the month of March as the month with highest sales tax receipts being collected in March. A complete economic cycle of the data series can be observed over the time period including the recession of 2008-2009. The series was determined to be integrated of order one by conducting ADF and KPSS tests.