A Time-Series Analysis of the Sales Tax in Tazewell County, Illinois
Submission Type
Event
Expected Graduation Date
2014
Location
Room E102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University
Start Date
4-20-2013 10:00 AM
End Date
4-20-2013 11:00 AM
Disciplines
Economics
Abstract
This paper studies the sales tax receipts collected for Tazewell County, Illinois. The data series contains 102 observations between July 2004 and December 2012. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct short-term forecasting of the series. Within an overall positive trend for the whole sample period a cyclical contraction followed by an expansion, corresponding to the 2008-2009 recession, are identified. Recurring seasonal patterns are also apparent, pointing to the month of March as the month with highest sales tax receipts being collected in March. A complete economic cycle of the data series can be observed over the time period including the recession of 2008-2009. The series was determined to be integrated of order one by conducting ADF and KPSS tests.
A Time-Series Analysis of the Sales Tax in Tazewell County, Illinois
Room E102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University
This paper studies the sales tax receipts collected for Tazewell County, Illinois. The data series contains 102 observations between July 2004 and December 2012. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct short-term forecasting of the series. Within an overall positive trend for the whole sample period a cyclical contraction followed by an expansion, corresponding to the 2008-2009 recession, are identified. Recurring seasonal patterns are also apparent, pointing to the month of March as the month with highest sales tax receipts being collected in March. A complete economic cycle of the data series can be observed over the time period including the recession of 2008-2009. The series was determined to be integrated of order one by conducting ADF and KPSS tests.