Peoria County Sales Tax Receipts:Is the Economy Improving?
Submission Type
Event
Expected Graduation Date
2014
Location
Room C102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University
Start Date
4-20-2013 11:00 AM
End Date
4-20-2013 12:00 PM
Disciplines
Economics
Abstract
This paper studies the sales tax receipts for Peoria County, Illinois to investigate the level of economic recovery since the recession of 2008-2009. Local officials and businesses may find this study relevant for planning and forecasting purposes. We use a time series analysis with a monthly data sample obtained from the Illinois Department of Revenue from June 2004 to December 2012, a total of 102 observations. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct short-term forecasting of the series. Preliminary analysis shows: the presence of seasonal patterns, the highest sales tax receipts are recorded in March; a cycle capturing the 2008-2009 recession; and an overall slight negative trend. By computing the ADF and KPSS tests, we conclude that the series is integrated of order one (I(1)).
Peoria County Sales Tax Receipts:Is the Economy Improving?
Room C102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University
This paper studies the sales tax receipts for Peoria County, Illinois to investigate the level of economic recovery since the recession of 2008-2009. Local officials and businesses may find this study relevant for planning and forecasting purposes. We use a time series analysis with a monthly data sample obtained from the Illinois Department of Revenue from June 2004 to December 2012, a total of 102 observations. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct short-term forecasting of the series. Preliminary analysis shows: the presence of seasonal patterns, the highest sales tax receipts are recorded in March; a cycle capturing the 2008-2009 recession; and an overall slight negative trend. By computing the ADF and KPSS tests, we conclude that the series is integrated of order one (I(1)).