Event Title

Peoria County Sales Tax Receipts:Is the Economy Improving?

Graduation Year

2014

Location

Room C102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University

Start Date

20-4-2013 11:00 AM

End Date

20-4-2013 12:00 PM

Description

This paper studies the sales tax receipts for Peoria County, Illinois to investigate the level of economic recovery since the recession of 2008-2009. Local officials and businesses may find this study relevant for planning and forecasting purposes. We use a time series analysis with a monthly data sample obtained from the Illinois Department of Revenue from June 2004 to December 2012, a total of 102 observations. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct short-term forecasting of the series. Preliminary analysis shows: the presence of seasonal patterns, the highest sales tax receipts are recorded in March; a cycle capturing the 2008-2009 recession; and an overall slight negative trend. By computing the ADF and KPSS tests, we conclude that the series is integrated of order one (I(1)).

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Apr 20th, 11:00 AM Apr 20th, 12:00 PM

Peoria County Sales Tax Receipts:Is the Economy Improving?

Room C102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University

This paper studies the sales tax receipts for Peoria County, Illinois to investigate the level of economic recovery since the recession of 2008-2009. Local officials and businesses may find this study relevant for planning and forecasting purposes. We use a time series analysis with a monthly data sample obtained from the Illinois Department of Revenue from June 2004 to December 2012, a total of 102 observations. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct short-term forecasting of the series. Preliminary analysis shows: the presence of seasonal patterns, the highest sales tax receipts are recorded in March; a cycle capturing the 2008-2009 recession; and an overall slight negative trend. By computing the ADF and KPSS tests, we conclude that the series is integrated of order one (I(1)).