Time Series Analysis of McLean County Sales Tax

Submission Type

Event

Expected Graduation Date

2014

Location

Room E102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University

Start Date

4-20-2013 10:00 AM

End Date

4-20-2013 11:00 AM

Disciplines

Economics

Abstract

This paper studies sales tax receipts collected by the Illinois Department of Revenue for Mclean County, Illinois. The data sample contains 102 monthly observations spanning between July 2004 and December 2012. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct short-term forecasting of the series. We can distinguish between three short-term trends in the data: Increasing until November 2006, decreasing until August 2011, and sharply increasing until December 2012. Seasonal patterns in the data are made manifest through monthly averages showing us that the month of March yields the highest sales tax receipts. By running KPSS and ADF diagnostic tests we conclude that the series is integrated of order one, or I(1).

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Apr 20th, 10:00 AM Apr 20th, 11:00 AM

Time Series Analysis of McLean County Sales Tax

Room E102, Center for Natural Sciences, Illinois Wesleyan University

This paper studies sales tax receipts collected by the Illinois Department of Revenue for Mclean County, Illinois. The data sample contains 102 monthly observations spanning between July 2004 and December 2012. This study fits an ARMA (p,q) model to the data in order to conduct short-term forecasting of the series. We can distinguish between three short-term trends in the data: Increasing until November 2006, decreasing until August 2011, and sharply increasing until December 2012. Seasonal patterns in the data are made manifest through monthly averages showing us that the month of March yields the highest sales tax receipts. By running KPSS and ADF diagnostic tests we conclude that the series is integrated of order one, or I(1).