Does the Economy Determine the President? A Regression Model For Predicting US Presidential Elections

Authors

Roy K. Roth, Brigham Young University - UtahFollow

Abstract

There is a prevalent belief that the economy determines the President. If the economy is good, the President keeps his job, if it is bad, he is out. A large body of econometric literature has been published on this topic. This paper takes a new approach. I look not at how the popular vote changes with economic conditions, but how the electoral vote changes. I further examine how these changes affect the probability that the incumbent party stays in office. I find that economic conditions may not be as important as they have been purported to be.

Recommended Citation

Roth, Roy K. (2011) "Does the Economy Determine the President? A Regression Model For Predicting US Presidential Elections," Undergraduate Economic Review: Vol. 8: Iss. 1, Article 11.
Available at: https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/uer/vol8/iss1/11